Decision tree analysis: drawing some of the uncertainty out of decision making

Abstract

In veterinary practice, treatment outcomes and their economic consequences are often uncertain. Decision analysis (a formal, structured approach to making decisions when uncertainty exists) is applied to two situations commonly encountered in swine practice: whether or not to treat a sick animal, and how to determine the financial worth of using ultrasound to test for pregnancy in swine herds under various scenarios. Once a decision analysis model is developed, practitioners can use production record data from a client's herd, plus some knowledge of the characteristics of the test, as well as an estimate of the prevalence of the condition in the herd to customize the tree to illustrate the benefit of a certain decision.